Effects of Worst Satellite Breakups in History Still Felt Today






The anniversaries of two major space junk events — China‘s anti-satellite test on Jan. 11, 2007, and the destructive fender-bender between a defunct Soviet Union-era satellite with an operating U.S. spacecraft on Feb. 10, 2009 — are receiving special attention in orbital debris circles.


The Chinese anti-satellite test merited a nod by the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) Public Affairs Office from Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, labeling it an “Anniversary Milestone: Satellite Shootdown.”






The Jan. 11 AFSPC release noted that the Chinese military used a ground-based missile to hit and destroy its aging Fengyun-1C weather satellite, which was orbiting more than 500 miles (805 kilometers) in space back in 2007.


“The test raised concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. satellites and a possible arms race in space,” the press release stated.


The anti-satellite test created more than 100,000 pieces of debris orbiting the planet, with about 2,600 of them more than 4 inches (10 centimeters) across, according to a NASA estimate.


“We carefully monitor those and the thousands of other bits of orbital debris to help provide for safe passage for those who traverse those orbits,” the AFSPC statement concluded. [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]


Debris count


Similarly, NASA’s “The Orbital Debris Quarterly News,” a publication of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, spotlighted the two anniversaries in its January issue: China’s ASAT test, as well as the upcoming fourth anniversary of the smashup between Russia’s circa-1960s Cosmos 2251 spacecraft and the U.S. Iridium 33 communications satellite.


“The beginning of the year 2013 marks the sixth anniversary of the destruction of the Fengyun-1C (FY-1C) weather satellite as the result of an anti-satellite test conducted by China in January of 2007 and the fourth anniversary of the accidental collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in February of 2009,” the newsletter reported, adding, “These two events represent the worst satellite breakups in history.”


Altogether, the space junk created by these two events accounted for more than a third of the total cataloged satellite population in low-Earth orbit (LEO), where approximately 500 operational spacecraft reside or transit daily.


According to the NASA orbital debris office, a total of 5,579 fragments have been cataloged by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) — a worldwide network of space surveillance radar and optical telescopes, both military and civilian — to observe the objects. Almost 5,000 of them still remain in orbit as of January 2013.


Changing the landscape


In addition to these cataloged objects, hundreds of thousands or more pieces of space litter, down to approximately a millimeter in size, were also generated during the breakups. These fragments are too tiny to be tracked by the SSN, but still large enough to be a safety concern for human space activities and robotic missions in low-Earth orbit — the region below 1,243 miles (2,000 km) altitude.


“Just like their cataloged siblings, many of them remain in orbit today. These two breakup events dramatically changed the landscape of the orbital debris environment in LEO,” according to the NASA newsletter.


China’s ASAT destruction of FY-1C and the mess produced, along with the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 fragments, “will continue to be felt for decades to come,” the newsletter points out.


In general, the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 fragments will decay (in other words, be destroyed by falling through Earth’s atmosphere) faster than the FY-1C fragments because of their lower altitudes. In the case of Iridium 33, that shorter lifetime is caused by the lightweight composite materials that were extensively used in the fabrication of the Iridium spacecraft.


Solar cycling


The enormous amounts of debris churned up by the fragmentations of Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 will also be affected by our sun’s 11-year cycle of activity, which is currently in what’s called Solar Cycle 24, experts say.


Increased solar activity heats the Earth’s atmosphere, causing it to expand. That expansion increases the density of the atmosphere at any given altitude. This, in turn, increases drag on space junk, as well as satellites, causing these objects to fall back to Earth more quickly.


By mid-2012, more than 570 (10 percent) of the cataloged debris from the ASAT test and the satellite collision had already fallen out of orbit and with an increasing rate. Many of the remaining cataloged bits of debris had also noticeably experienced the effects of atmospheric drag.


NASA predicts that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in early or mid-2013.


Future forecasting


However, Nicholas Johnson, chief scientist for orbital debris at the NASA Johnson Space Center in Houston, said the peak in solar activity expected in 2013 might be the lowest in 100 years.


“Hence, far fewer debris, both large and small, will fall back to Earth compared with a more normal solar cycle. This comes at a time of a record number of known orbital objects,” Johnson said. “If solar activity does not return to normal levels during the next solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), the rate of growth of the Earth orbital population will increase more rapidly than most forecasts now anticipate,” he reported at last year’s 63rd International Astronautical Congress in Naples, Italy.


Johnson also noted that by the end of Cycle 24 (estimated to come around 2020), about one-third of all debris from the two breakup events might have re-entered, depending upon the peak and duration of the forthcoming solar maximum.


Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999.


Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Why haven't we learned from fires?






STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Pyrotechnics, overcrowding, poor exits have contributed to tragic fires in recent years

  • You would think the world would have learned from past incidents, John Barylick says

  • Concertgoers have to be their own fire marshals, he says




Editor's note: John Barylick, author of "Killer Show," a book on the 2003 Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island, is an attorney who represented victims in wrongful death and personal injury cases arising from the fire.


(CNN) -- Sunday morning we awoke to breaking news of another tragic nightclub fire, this time in Brazil. At last report the death toll exceeded 230.


This tragedy is not without precedent. Next month will mark the 10th anniversary of a similar nightclub fire in Rhode Island. At this sad time, it's appropriate to reflect on what we've learned from club fires -- and what we haven't.


Rhode Island's Station nightclub fire of 2003, in which 100 concertgoers lost their lives, began when fireworks set off by Great White, an 80s heavy metal band, ignited flammable packing foam on the club's walls.


Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history



John Barylick

John Barylick





Panicked patrons stampeded toward the club's main exit, and a fatal pileup ensued. Contributing to the tragedy were illegal use of pyrotechnics, overcrowding and a wall covering that would have failed even the most rudimentary flammability tests.


Video images of the Station fire were broadcast worldwide: A concert begins; the crowd's mood changes from merry, to curious, to concerned, to horrified -- in less than a minute. You'd think the world would have learned from it. You would be wrong.



The following year, the Republica Cromanon nightclub in Argentina went up in flames, killing 194 people. The club was made to hold about 1,000 people, but it was estimated that more than 3,000 fans were packed inside the night of the fire, which began when fans began lighting flares that caught the roof on fire.


Echoes of the past: Rhode Island victims 'can't help but watch'


Then, in January 2009, at least 64 New Year's revelers lost their lives in a nightclub in Bangkok, Thailand, after fire ignited its ceiling. Many were crushed in a rush to get out of the club. In December of that same year, a fire in a Russian nightclub, ignited by pyrotechnics, killed 156 people. Overcrowding, poor exits, and indoor fireworks all played roles in these tragedies; yet no one bothered to learn from mistakes of the past.


While responsibility for concert disasters unquestionably lies with venue operators, performers and promoters, ultimately, we, as patrons of clubs and concerts, can enhance our own safety by taking a few simple steps. The National Fire Protection Association urges concertgoers to:


• Be observant. Is the concert venue rundown or well-maintained? Does the staff look well-trained?


• As you proceed to your seat, observe how long the process takes. Could you reverse it in a hurry? Do you pass through pinch points? Is furniture in the way?


• Once seated, take note of the nearest exit. (In an emergency, most people try to exit by the door they entered, which is usually not the closest, and is always overcrowded.) Then, share the location of that nearest exit with your entire party. Agree that at the first sign of trouble, you will all proceed to it without delay.


• Once the show begins, remain vigilant. If you think there's a problem, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Do not stay to "get your money's worth" despite concerns about safety. Do not remain to locate that jacket or bag you placed somewhere. No concert is worth your life. Better to read about an incident the next day than be counted as one of its statistics.


Read more: How to protect yourself in a crowd


To be sure, all fire codes must be vigorously enforced, and club and concert hall operators must be held to the highest standards. A first step is banning indoor pyrotechnics in all but the largest, stadium-type venues.


But, ultimately, we are our own best "fire marshals" when it comes to avoiding, and escaping, dangerous situations. We can still enjoy shows. But it is up to us to look out for our own safety.


In coming days, Rhode Islanders will follow the unfolding news from Brazil with a sense of queasy deja vu -- the rising body counts, the victim identification process, the grieving families, and the assigning (and dodging) of blame. If only they had learned from our tragedy.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Barylick.







Read More..

Butler's 19 points lead Bulls over Bobcats









To Jimmy Butler, it's simple.


Whether he's averaging 45.2 minutes in the five games he started for Luol Deng or playing 31 minutes, 14 seconds in reserve of Deng and others, as he did during Monday's 93-85 victory over the Bobcats, his role remains the same.


"Rebound, guard and make some open shots," Butler said. "Starting gave me a lot more confidence. But I'm still able to do those things (off the bench)."








Indeed, Butler stole the show, backing up his promise with a career-high 19 points and six rebounds, playing at shooting guard alongside Deng for a long second-quarter stretch and most of the final 5:28.


"Jimmy's a big part of the team," coach Tom Thibodeau said. "Lu has been huge for us. We know we have flexibility. You do what's best for the team."


Deng returned after missing five games with an injured right hamstring and finished with 12 points in just over 31 minutes as the Bulls avenged their New Year's Eve home loss to the Bobcats.


"I felt great," Deng said. "I hadn't gone full speed like that, so I was a little worried about the change of speed and direction. So I'm happy I was able not to have any setbacks. It felt a little tight, but it didn't feel like how it felt when I first did it."


Thibodeau admitted he didn't want to overextend Deng's minutes in his first game while casually plugging him for defensive player of the year.


"There may not be a better defender in the league," Thibodeau said.


At least against the speedy, perimeter-driven Bobcats, minutes dropped for Marco Belinelli and Richard Hamilton. Thibodeau even used the combination of Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson for a brief third-quarter stretch.


"They went real small," Thibodeau said. "I liked (Butler's) quickness out there defensively."


The Bulls pulled away late in the third after the Bobcats tied it at 55-55 with 3:36 remaining. Joakim Noah, huge again with a double-double, seven assists and five blocks in nearly 45 minutes, scored on a three-point play. Robinson, who contributed 15 points off the bench, fueled a 13-0 run with two 3-pointers as the Bobcats failed to score for 4:24.


With 13 points and 18 rebounds, Noah became the first Bull to grab 15 or more rebounds in four straight games since Dennis Rodman in March 1998.


Robinson poured it on in the fourth, scoring eight points as the Bulls pushed their lead to 14. But old friend Ben Gordon found his range in the final period as well, scoring 10 of his 18 points as the Bobcats trimmed the lead to six late.


That's when Carlos Boozer powered home a left-handed dunk over Bismack Biyombo off a feed from Robinson with 1:24 left to jazz the sellout crowd of 21,308.


"As long as we play the type of basketball we know we're capable of, we can beat any team," Butler said. "We can also lose to any team if we don't."


kcjohnson@tribune.com


Twitter @kcjhoop





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French seal off Mali's Timbuktu, rebels torch library


GAO, Mali (Reuters) - French and Malian troops retook control of Timbuktu, a UNESCO World Heritage site, on Monday after Islamist rebel occupiers fled the ancient Sahara trading town and torched several buildings, including a library holding priceless manuscripts.


The United States and the European Union are backing a French-led intervention in Mali against al Qaeda-allied militants they fear could use the West African state's desert north as a springboard for international attacks.


The recovery of Timbuktu followed the swift capture by French and Malian forces at the weekend of Gao, another major town in Mali's north that had been occupied by the alliance of jihadist groups since last year.


The two-week-old mission by France in its former Sahel colony, at the request of Mali's government, has driven the Islamist rebels northwards out of towns into the desert and mountains.


Without a shot being fired, 1,000 French soldiers and paratroopers and 200 Malian troops seized Timbuktu airport and surrounded the town on the banks of the Niger River, looking to block the escape of insurgents.


In both Timbuktu and Gao, cheering crowds turned out to welcome the French and Malian troops.


A third town in Mali's vast desert north, Kidal, had remained in Islamist militant hands. But Malian Tuareg MNLA rebels, who are seeking autonomy for their northern region, said on Monday they had taken charge in Kidal after Islamist fighters abandoned it.


A diplomat in Bamako confirmed the MNLA takeover of Kidal.


A French military spokesman said the assault forces at Timbuktu were avoiding any fighting inside the city to protect the cultural treasures, mosques and religious shrines in what is considered a seat of Islamic learning.


But Timbuktu Mayor Ousmane Halle told Reuters departing Islamist gunmen had four days earlier set fire to the town's new Ahmed Baba Institute, which contained thousands of manuscripts.


UNESCO spokesman Roni Amelan said the Paris-based U.N. cultural agency was "horrified" by the news of the fire, but was awaiting a full assessment of the damage.


Ali Baba, a worker at the Ahmed Baba Institute, told Sky News in Timbuktu more than 3,000 manuscripts had been destroyed. "They are bandits. They have burned some manuscripts and also stole a lot of manuscripts which they took with them," he said.


Marie Rodet, an African history lecturer at Britain's School of Oriental and African Studies, said Timbuktu held one of the greatest libraries of Islamic manuscripts in the world.


"It's pure retaliation. They (the Islamist militant rebels) knew they were losing the battle and they hit where it really hurts," Rodet told Reuters. "These people are not interested in any intellectual debate. They are anti-intellectual."


ISLAMISTS "ALL FLED"


The Ahmed Baba Institute, one of several libraries and collections in Timbuktu containing fragile documents dating back to the 13th century, is named after a Timbuktu-born contemporary of William Shakespeare and houses more than 20,000 scholarly manuscripts. Some were stored in underground vaults.


The French and Malians have encountered no resistance so far in Timbuktu. But they will now have to comb through a labyrinth of ancient mosques, monuments, mud-brick homes and narrow alleyways to flush out any hiding fighters.


The Islamist forces comprise a loose alliance that groups Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) with Malian Islamist group Ansar Dine and AQIM splinter MUJWA.


They have retreated in the face of relentless French air strikes and superior firepower and are believed to be sheltering in the rugged Adrar des Ifoghas mountain range, north of Kidal.


The MNLA Tuareg rebels who say they now hold Kidal have offered to help the French-led offensive against the al Qaeda-affiliated Islamists. It was not clear, however, whether the French and Malians would steer their offensive further towards Kidal, or hold negotiations with the MNLA.


FRANCE: MALI "BEING LIBERATED"


The world was shocked by Timbuktu's capture in April by Tuareg fighters, whose separatist rebellion was later hijacked by Islamist radicals who imposed severe sharia (Islamic law).


Provoking international outrage, the Muslim militants - who follow a more radical Salafist brand of Islam - destroyed dozens of ancient shrines in Timbuktu sacred to Sufi Muslims, condemning them as idolatrous and un-Islamic.


They also imposed a strict form of Islamic law, or sharia, authorizing the stoning of adulterers and amputations for thieves, while forcing women to go veiled.


On Sunday, many women among the thousands of Gao residents who came out to celebrate the rebels' expulsion made a point of going unveiled. Other residents smoked cigarettes and played music to flout the bans previously imposed by the rebels.


Hundreds of troops from Niger and Chad have been brought to Gao to help secure the town.


"Little by little, Mali is being liberated," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told France 2 television.


Speaking at a news conference in Paris, French President Francois Hollande said French troops would take a step back once the job of retaking key towns was complete, and Malian and other African troops would take over the task of hunting the rebels.


"They are the ones who will go into the northern part, which we know is the most difficult because that's where the terrorists are hiding," Hollande said.


As the French and Malian troops thrust into northern Mali, African troops for a U.N.-backed continental intervention force for Mali, expected to number 7,700, are being flown into the country, despite severe delays and logistical problems.


Outgoing African Union Chairman President Thomas Boni Yayi of Benin scolded AU states at a weekend summit in Addis Ababa for their slow response to assist Mali while former colonial power France took the lead in the military operation.


Burkina Faso, Benin, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, Niger and Chad are providing soldiers for the AFISMA force. Burundi and other nations have pledged to contribute.


AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra said these regional troops could play a useful "clean-up" role once the main military operations against the Islamist rebels end.


Speaking in Addis Ababa on Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the U.N. was "actively considering" helping the troop-contributing African countries with logistical support.


(Additional reporting by Richard Valdmanis in Sevare, Mali, Bate Felix and David Lewis in Dakar, Maria Golovina in London, Alexandria Sage, Vicky Buffery and Emmanuel Jarry in Paris, Tiemoko Diallo in Bamako, Abdoulaye Massalatchi in Niamey, Richard Lough and Aaron Masho in Addis Ababa; Writing by Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Andrew Heavens)



Read More..

Euro, shares stall as investors turn cautious


LONDON (Reuters) - Rallies in European shares and the single currency stalled on Monday after strong gains last week as investors awaited confirmation that financial market conditions and the outlook for the euro area have improved.


Investor sentiment rose strongly on Friday after data showed European banks would repay more than expected of the emergency loans they borrowed from the European Central Bank (ECB) and that business sentiment in Germany was improving sharply.


A solid start to the corporate earnings season has also helped send many equity indexes to pre-financial crisis highs, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index closing last week at its highest level in over five years.


In the equity markets Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> shed 0.1 percent in early trade to 1,173.87 points, leveling off near its highest level for almost two years, though traders said there was still strong underlying demand.


"All European benchmarks are at their 2012-2013 highs. Every time there's even a slight pull-back, the buying pressure comes in," Aurel BGC chartist Gerard Sagnier said.


The market's cautious mood on Monday also followed a weaker session in Asia, where falls in technology companies saw the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> drop 0.4 percent.


The euro held near an 11-month high against the dollar $1.3440

Meanwhile, German government bond futures, a key gauge of investor sentiment, continued to ease, slipping a further 7 ticks to 142.40 on Monday, and gold is languishing near a two-week low as hopes for an economic recovery worldwide dampen the metal's appeal as a safe haven.


Investors are keenly awaiting the ECB's monthly data on bank lending to companies and consumers, due later, for confirmation that growth is returning to the economy. Italy will also provide a test of investor sentiment when it auctions almost 7 billion euros ($9.4 billion) of 2-year and 5-year bonds.


However, the main focus for investors this week will be on the U.S., where the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and where the nonfarm payrolls report is due out on Friday.


Oil prices were being held in check by the events coming up in the U.S., with Brent crude unchanged at $113.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 17 cents to $96.05 after seven straight weekly gains - the longest such streak since early 2009.


($1 = 0.7421 euros)


(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; Editing by Will Waterman)



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Tiger headed toward another win at Torrey


SAN DIEGO (AP) — The Pacific air was so cold at the end of a 10-hour day at Torrey Pines that Tiger Woods thrust both hands in the front pockets of his rain pants as he walked off the course at the Farmers Insurance Open.


It was a fitting image. Woods made a marathon day look like he was out for a stroll.


Staked to a two-shot lead going into the third round of this fog-delayed tournament, Woods drove the ball where he was aiming and was hardly ever out of position. Even with a bogey on the final hole — the easiest on the back nine — Woods still had a 3-under 69 and expanded his lead by two shots.


In the seven holes he played in the fourth round later Sunday afternoon, Woods hit the ball all over the course and still made three birdies to add two more strokes to his lead.


Thanks to the fog that wiped out an entire day of golf on Saturday, the Farmers Insurance Open didn't stand a chance of finishing on Sunday.


Woods just made it look like it was over.


He had a six-shot lead with 11 holes to play going into the conclusion of the final round on Monday. The two guys chasing him were Brandt Snedeker, the defending champion, and Nick Watney, who won at Torrey Pines in 2008. Neither was waving a white flag. Both understood how much the odds were stacked against them.


"I've got a guy at the top of the leaderboard that doesn't like giving up leads," Snedeker said. "So I have to go catch him."


"All we can do tomorrow is go out and try to make him think about it a little bit and see what happens," Watney said.


And then there was Erik Compton, a two-time heart transplant recipient who had a birdie-eagle finish in the third round that put him in third place through 54 holes, still five shots behind Woods. Someone asked Compton about trying to chase Woods. He laughed.


"I'm trying to chase myself," he said.


Woods was at 17-under par for the tournament, and more than just a six-shot lead was in his corner.


He finished the third round at 14-under 202, making it the 16th time on the PGA Tour that he had at least a four-shot lead going into the final round. His record on the PGA Tour with the outright lead after 54 holes is 38-2, the exceptions being Ed Fiori in 1996 when Woods was a 20-year-old rookie and Y.E. Yang in the 2009 PGA Championship.


Woods attributed his big lead to the "whole package."


"I've driven the ball well, I've hit my irons well, and I've chipped and putted well," he said. "Well, I've hit good putts. They all haven't gone in."


Woods has a good history of Monday finishes, starting with Torrey Pines. It was on this course along the coast north of La Jolla that Woods won a 19-hole playoff against Rocco Mediate to capture the 2008 U.S. Open for his 14th major.


He also won the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on a Monday in 2000 when he rallied from seven shots behind with seven holes to play. He won his lone title in The Players Championship on a Monday, along with a five-shot win in the Memorial in 2000, and a scheduled Monday finish in the Deutsche Bank Championship outside Boston.


Woods even gets to sleep in.


A Monday finish because of weather typically resumes in the morning so players can get to the next tournament. CBS Sports, however, decided it wanted to televise the conclusion, and so play won't begin until 2 p.m. EST. That decision might have been based on Woods being headed toward victory — just a hunch.


Woods already has won seven times at Torrey Pines, including the U.S. Open. That matches his PGA Tour record at Bay Hill and Firestone (Sam Snead won the Greensboro Open eight times, four each on a different course).


The tournament isn't over, and Woods doesn't see it that way.


"I've got to continue with executing my game plan. That's the idea," he said. "I've got 11 holes to play, and I've got to play them well."


He seized control with his 69 in the third round that gave him a four-shot lead, and he might have put this away in the two hours he played before darkness stopped play.


He badly missed the first fairway to the left, but had a gap through the Torrey pines to the green and had a two-putt par. He missed his next shot so far to the left that the ball wound up in the first cut of the adjacent sixth fairway. He still managed a simple up-and-down for par.


After a 10-foot birdie on the par-3 third, Woods couldn't afford to go left off the tee again because of the PGA Tour's largest water hazard — the Pacific Ocean. So he went miles right, beyond a cart path, a tree blocking his way to the green. He hit a cut shot that came up safely short of the green, and then chipped in from 40 feet for birdie.


"I was able to play those holes in 2-under par," Woods said. "And then I hit three great drives right in a row."


One of them wasn't that great — it was in the right rough, the ball so buried that from 214 yards that Woods hit a 5-wood. It scooted down the fairway and onto the green, setting up a two-putt birdie the stretched his lead to six shots. And after another good drive, the horn sounded to stop play. Because it was due to weather, Woods was able to finish the hole, and he two-putted for par.


Eleven holes on Monday were all that were keeping him from his 75th career win on the PGA Tour, and delivering a message to the rest of golf that there could be more of this to follow no matter what the golf course.


Read More..

Energy-Guzzling Cities Changing Weather 1,000 Miles Away






The heat released by everyday activities in energy-guzzling cities is changing the weather in far-away places, scientists report today (Jan. 27).


The released heat is changing temperatures in areas more than 1,000 miles away (1609 kilometers). It is warming parts of North America by about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius) and northern Asia by as much as 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius), while cooling areas of Europe by a similar amount, scientists report in the journal Nature Climate Change.






The released heat (dubbed waste heat), it seems, is changing atmospheric circulation, including jet streams — powerful narrow currents of wind that blow from west to east and north to south in the upper atmosphere. 


This impact on regional temperatures may explain a climate puzzle of sorts: why some areas are having warmer winters than predicted by climate models, the researchers said. In turn, the results suggest this phenomenon should be accounted for in models forecasting global warming.


“There’s a tendency in climate science to overlook the effects of cities,” Brian Stone, a professor of city and regional planning at Georgia Tech, told LiveScience. “Cities occupy just a few percent of the global land surface, but the amount of energy released as waste heat is contributing downwind to pretty significant changes in climate. I hope this will encourage us to focus more on cities as important drivers of climate change,” added Stone, who was not involved in the current study. [8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World]


Hot in the city


Cities are known to be warmer than their surroundings due to what’s known as the urban heat island effect — pavement, buildings and other building materials retain heat, preventing it from reradiating into the sky.


In the new study, the researchers looked at another kind of “urban heat,” this one produced directly by transportation, heating and cooling units, and other energy-consuming activities.


“The burning of fossil fuel not only emits greenhouse gases, but also directly affects temperatures because of heat that escapes from sources like buildings and cars,” said study researcher Aixue Hu, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in a statement. “Although much of this waste heat is concentrated in large cities, it can change atmospheric patterns in a way that raises or lowers temperatures across considerable distances.”


Hu and colleagues studied the energy effect using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model, a widely used climate model that takes into account the effects of greenhouse gases, topography, oceans, ice and global weather. The researchers ran the model with and without the input of human energy consumption, to see whether it could account for large-scale regional warming.


When man-made energy was included in the model, it led to winter and autumn temperature changes of up to 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) in mid- and high-latitude parts of North America and Eurasia. The modeling is based on estimates, however, and more studies are needed to measure how much heat is actually released by urban areas.


Heat disrupts jet stream


Here’s how the scientists think it works: Energy-hungry metropolitan areas are located on the east and west coasts of North America and Eurasia, beneath major “hot spots” of atmospheric circulation. The waste heat from these cities creates thermal mountains, or taller-than-normal columns of heated air, which cause air jets moving eastward to deflect northward and southward.


As a result, the jet stream in upper latitudes widens and strengthens, bringing up hot air from the south and causing warming far from the urban areas (and concurrent cooling in others).


“The energy consumption in highly populated areas can cause changes in wind patterns, and that causes climate change far away from the heating source,” said meteorologist and study author Ming Cai of Florida State University.


Follow LiveScience on Twitter @livescience. We’re also on Facebook & Google+.


Copyright 2013 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Weather News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Why haven't we learned from fires?




















Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire


Hundreds dead in Brazil nightclub fire





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STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Pyrotechnics, overcrowding, poor exits have contributed to tragic fires in recent years

  • You would think the world would have learned from past incidents, John Barylick says

  • Concertgoers have to be their own fire marshals, he says




Editor's note: John Barylick, author of "Killer Show," a book on the 2003 Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island, is an attorney who represented victims in wrongful death and personal injury cases arising from the fire.


(CNN) -- Sunday morning we awoke to breaking news of another tragic nightclub fire, this time in Brazil. At last report the death toll exceeded 230.


This tragedy is not without precedent. Next month will mark the 10th anniversary of a similar nightclub fire in Rhode Island. At this sad time, it's appropriate to reflect on what we've learned from club fires -- and what we haven't.


Rhode Island's Station nightclub fire of 2003, in which 100 concertgoers lost their lives, began when fireworks set off by Great White, an 80s heavy metal band, ignited flammable packing foam on the club's walls.



John Barylick

John Barylick



Panicked patrons stampeded toward the club's main exit, and a fatal pileup ensued. Contributing to the tragedy were illegal use of pyrotechnics, overcrowding and a wall covering that would have failed even the most rudimentary flammability tests.


Video images of the Station fire were broadcast worldwide: A concert begins; the crowd's mood changes from merry, to curious, to concerned, to horrified -- in less than a minute. You'd think the world would have learned from it. You would be wrong.


Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history



The following year, the Republica Cromanon nightclub in Argentina went up in flames, killing 194 people. The club was made to hold about 1,000 people, but it was estimated that more than 3,000 fans were packed inside the night of the fire, which began when fans began lighting flares that caught the roof on fire.


Then, in January 2009, at least 64 New Year's revelers lost their lives in a nightclub in Bangkok, Thailand, after fire ignited its ceiling. Many were crushed in a rush to get out of the club. In December of that same year, a fire in a Russian nightclub, ignited by pyrotechnics, killed 156 people. Overcrowding, poor exits, and indoor fireworks all played roles in these tragedies; yet no one bothered to learn from mistakes of the past.


While responsibility for concert disasters unquestionably lies with venue operators, performers and promoters, ultimately, we, as patrons of clubs and concerts, can enhance our own safety by taking a few simple steps. The National Fire Protection Association urges concertgoers to:


• Be observant. Is the concert venue rundown or well-maintained? Does the staff look well-trained?


• As you proceed to your seat, observe how long the process takes. Could you reverse it in a hurry? Do you pass through pinch points? Is furniture in the way?


• Once seated, take note of the nearest exit. (In an emergency, most people try to exit by the door they entered, which is usually not the closest, and is always overcrowded.) Then, share the location of that nearest exit with your entire party. Agree that at the first sign of trouble, you will all proceed to it without delay.


• Once the show begins, remain vigilant. If you think there's a problem, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Do not stay to "get your money's worth" despite concerns about safety. Do not remain to locate that jacket or bag you placed somewhere. No concert is worth your life. Better to read about an incident the next day than be counted as one of its statistics.


Read more: How to protect yourself in a crowd


To be sure, all fire codes must be vigorously enforced, and club and concert hall operators must be held to the highest standards. A first step is banning indoor pyrotechnics in all but the largest, stadium-type venues.


But, ultimately, we are our own best "fire marshals" when it comes to avoiding, and escaping, dangerous situations. We can still enjoy shows. But it is up to us to look out for our own safety.


In coming days, Rhode Islanders will follow the unfolding news from Brazil with a sense of queasy deja vu -- the rising body counts, the victim identification process, the grieving families, and the assigning (and dodging) of blame. If only they had learned from our tragedy.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Barylick.







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2 dead after apparent carbon monoxide leak in W. Rogers Park









Two women are dead and another was hospitalized after an apparent carbon monoxide leak in a West Rogers Park building, officials said.


Paramedics were first called about 10:30 a.m. to the building, which is in the 2500 block of West North Shore Avenue, to transport one woman to the hospital, Chicago Fire Department spokeswoman Meg Ahlheim said.


The woman was taken in cardiac arrest to Swedish Covenant Hospital, Ahlheim said.





Fire officials at the scene called for a second ambulance, and a second woman was taken to Swedish Covenant as well, Ahlheim said.


Once paramedics became aware of the second victim, fire officials checked the building's carbon monoxide levels but found no indication of a leak, Ahlheim said.


Paramedics were called back to the scene, however, about 3:45 p.m., for another woman found unresponsive. The woman was taken to St. Francis Hospital in Evanston in critical condition, Ahlheim said.


Officials checked carbon monoxide level again, and while the meter readings in residential units showed no exposure, officials found a positive reading for a low level of carbon monoxide near a boiler in the basement, Ahlheim said.


The Cook County medical examiner's office confirmed Sunday evening that it had been notified of two fatalities from the building.


Police suspect the deaths were caused by accidental carbon monoxide poisoning, but no official determination will be made until autopsy results are reported, Chicago Police Department News Affairs Officer Amina Greer said.


A spokeswoman for Peoples Gas, Jennifer Block, confirmed that representatives from the company were called to the building to assist police and fire officials. She referred further questions to the police and fire departments.


asege@tribune.com


Twitter: @AdamSege






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Egypt's Mursi declares emergency after clashes kill dozens


CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi declared a month-long state of emergency in three cities on the Suez Canal, where dozens of people have been killed in protests that have swept the nation and deepened a political crisis facing the Islamist leader.


Hundreds of demonstrators in Port Said, Suez and Ismailia turned out against the decision within moments of Mursi's announcement late on Sunday that came after the death toll from protests and violence that erupted last week hit 49 people.


Most deaths were in Port Said, where 40 people were killed in just two days. Riots were sparked on Saturday when a court sentenced to death several people from the city in a case of deadly soccer violence last year. Mourners at Sunday's funerals in the port, where guns are common, turned their rage on Mursi.


The violence in Egyptian cities has now extended to a fifth day. Police again fired volleys of teargas at dozens of youths hurling stones early on Monday near Cairo's Tahrir Square, where opponents have camped for weeks to protest against Mursi, who they say betrayed the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak two years ago.


"We want to bring down the regime and end the state that is run by the Muslim Brotherhood," said Ibrahim Eissa, a 26-year-old cook, protecting his face from teargas wafting towards him from police lines near Tahrir, the cauldron of the 2011 revolt.


Propelled to power in a June election by the Brotherhood, Mursi's presidency has lurched through a series of political crises and violent demonstrations, compounding his task of shoring up a teetering economy and preparing for a parliamentary election to cement the new democracy in a few months.


"The protection of the nation is the responsibility of everyone. We will confront any threat to its security with force and firmness within the remit of the law," Mursi said, offering condolences to families of victims in the canal zone cities.


Appealing to his opponents, the president called for a national dialogue on Monday at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), inviting a range of Islamist allies as well as liberal, leftist and other opposition groups and individuals to discuss the crisis.


"WASTE OF TIME"


The main opposition National Salvation Front coalition said it would meet on Monday to discuss the offer. But some opponents have already suggested they do not expect much from the gathering, raising the prospect of poor attendance.


"Unless the president takes responsibility for the bloody events and pledges to form a government of national salvation and a balanced committee to amend the constitution, any dialogue will be a waste of time," Mohamed ElBaradei, a prominent politician who founded the Constitution Party, wrote on Twitter.


Hamdeen Sabahy, a firebrand leftist politician and presidential candidate who is another leading member of the Front, said he would not attend Monday's meeting "unless the bloodshed stops and the people's demands are met."


The response highlights Egypt's deeply polarized politics. Although Islamists have swept to victory in a parliamentary poll and presidential vote, the disparate opposition has been united by Mursi's bid late last year to expand is powers and fast-track a constitution with an Islamist hue through a referendum.


Mursi's opponents accuse him of listening only to his Islamist friends and reneging on a pledge to be a president for all Egyptians. Islamists say their rivals want to overthrow by undemocratic means Egypt's first freely elected leader.


The Front has distanced itself from the latest flare-ups but said Mursi should have acted far sooner to impose extra security measures that would have ended the violence and laid the blame for the escalation squarely on Mursi's shoulders.


"Of course we feel the president is missing the real problem on the ground, which is his own polices," spokesman Khaled Dawoud said. "His call to implement emergency law was an expected move given what is going on, namely thuggery and criminal actions."


ANGER


Even in Tahrir Square, some protesters said the violence and the death toll in Port Said and other cities along the strategic international waterway meant there was little choice but to impose emergency law, though they, too, said the violence was Mursi's fault.


"They needed the state of emergency there because there is so much anger," said Mohamed Ahmed, 27, a protester walking briskly from a cloud of teargas spreading into Tahrir Square.


But activists in the three cities affected have pledged to defy the curfew that will start at 9 p.m. (1900 GMT) each evening and will last until 6 a.m. (0400 GMT).


Some opposition groups have also called for more protests on Monday, which marks the second anniversary of one of the bloodiest days in the revolution that erupted on January 25, 2011, and brought an end to Mubarak's iron rule 18 days later.


Rights activists also said Mursi's declaration was a backward step for Egypt, which was under emergency law for Mubarak's entire 30-year rule. His police used the sweeping arrest provisions to muzzle dissent and round up opponents, including members of the Brotherhood and even Mursi himself.


Heba Morayef of Human Rights Watch in Cairo said the police, still hated by many Egyptians for their heavy-handed tactics under Mubarak, would once again have the right to arrest people "purely because they look suspicious", undermining efforts to create a more efficient and respected police force.


"It is a classic knee-jerk reaction to think the emergency law will help bring security," she said. "It gives so much discretion to the Ministry of Interior that it ends up causing more abuse, which in turn causes more anger."


(This story has been corrected to change day in paragraph four to Monday)


(Additional reporting by Shaimaa Fayed in Cairo and Yusri Mohamed in Ismailia; Editing by Will Waterman)



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